“Undecided” leads AG primaries
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
A new poll out from SurveyUSA has some fun details on the mood of the electorate in the June 8 primaries for attorney general. With early voting already underway and the primary less than a month away, the top pick among both Democrats and Republicans is — “undecided.”
I have no idea what his/her platform is. I suspect he/she has been having troubling, um, deciding. (Thank you, thank you very much, I’ll be here all week…)
But that more than one in four Democrats and one in three Republicans haven’t made up their minds yet speaks to the low intensity of the races, and suggests that a last-minute spending barrage could have a big effect on who gets the nominations.
So on the Democrats’ side, that might give an advantage to Chris Kelly, who has already dumped $4 million of his own money into his campaign (and is airing at least one ad). Though as the privacy guru for Facebook, he may have to overcome some serious reservations by folks upset with the social network’s cavalier attitude toward their presumptions of privacy.
So far, Kamala Harris (22%) and Rocky Delgadillo (16%) are leading Kelly (11%). But I have to note that SurveyUSA’s methodology — robocalls, so they don’t know who is actually answering the questions — is rejected by most of the top polling experts, though it has its defenders. And with a +/-4.3 margin of error, statistically Kelly could be in the lead.
On the Republican side, Tom Harman (29%) leads Steve Cooley (22%), with John Eastman chugging along in the rear (14%). But again, with the margin of error the survey actually tells us nothing of note — except that name recognition, rather than policy positions, could well be the determining factor in who wins either nomination. A rather chilling prospect, that, given how much influence the attorney general has on law enforcement.
But my favorite hidden gem from the poll is that Republicans have Democrats out-gunned — literally. Some 48% of likely GOP primary voters owned guns, compared with 26% of likely Democratic voters.
And yes, that falls outside the margin of error.